Title：The Belt and Road Initiative and the Deepening of Global Trade Networks  

Authors：Yue Lyu, Yaning Wei, Qiang Wang, Jiahui Yan

Abstract：After the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was introduced, its main goal has been to construct a community of shared future for mankind. This paper examines the positive effects of BRI on the participating countries from the perspective of trade networks. It applies the Harmonized System (HS) 6-digit product export data in the CEPII-BACI database from 2009 to 2018. The paper constructs a trade network without China at the product level and measures the PageRank centrality, reflecting the position of a country in this network. Then it adopts a difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the impact of BRI on the trade networks of these countries. The main findings are as follows: First, BRI has significantly deepened the trade networks of these countries. The PageRank centrality of these countries increased by 2.7% to 12.9%. Second, the heterogeneous effect analysis suggests that geographically, trade networks along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are strongly promoted. Third, the results of the difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) show that the trade networks of BRI countries trading key products were more strongly promoted. Moreover, BRI countries in the communities of China, Singapore, or India developed more extensively in their trade networks. Fourth, the positive effect of BRI can be explained through six aspects: policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, people-to-people bonds, and industry-chain cooperation.

Keywords：Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade Network, PageRank Centrality, Difference-in-differences Method (DID)