Title：Theoretical Analysis and Trend Prediction of International Economic and Trade Rules Reconstruction under the Impact of Digital Economy

Authors：Jie Bai, Lingyun Gao

Abstract: Existing international economic and trade rules have formed an organic unity with “fair competition rules”, interest adjustment rules, and enforcement rules as the three main pillars. The breadth and depth of the rules are rapidly expanding with intensive economic and trade negotiations, and gradually entering a period of reconstruction. The emergence of the digital economy injects new topics into the evolution of rules while also impacting the existing framework and content. Based on the revision of the origin and evolution theory of existing systems, this paper constructs a theoretical model for the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules under the impact of the digital economy, proposes implementation paths and typical models, and predicts future trends and adjustment directions. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the emergence of the digital economy has broken the steady state in the evolution of international economic and trade rules. The emergence of potential interests induces relevant interest groups to put forward rules appeals, and finally reaches a political equilibrium through domestic and international two-stage games; Second, in the process of reconstructing digital economic and trade rules, the United States has formed a “gradual reshaping + inside-out promotion model”, the European Union has formed a “focused effort + inside-out supervision model”, and China has formed an “integrated innovation + outside-in compulsion model”; Third, the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules under the impact of digital trade is mainly reflected at the level of “fair competition rules”, with minor adjustments at the level of interest adjustment rules and enforcement rules; Fourth, China’s participation in reconstructing international economic and trade rules started late but progressed quickly. However, it still faces institutional and mechanism obstacles, as well as challenges from the international environment and pressures. China urgently needs to take corresponding measures to promote the innovative development of digital economic and trade rules.

Keywords: Digital Economy, Digital Trade, Reconstruction of International Economic and Trade Rules, Institutional Economics Analysis