Title: Commentary on Recent US Trade Negotiations and the Trend of the Turnberry System

Author: Cui Fan

Abstract: This article analyzes recent trade negotiations of the United States (US) and the nature, risks, and far-reaching impacts of the so-called Turnberry System. Designed to subvert the WTO centered multilateral trading system, the Turnberry System features four core flaws: violation of WTO rules, unequal bargaining terms, severe policy uncertainty and limited implementation feasibility. After the US reciprocal tariffs imposed under IEEPA were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in early 2026, the US replaced them with Section 122 tariffs and launched new Section 232 and 301 investigations to sustain the restrictive system. Targeting Chinese exports, the US deploys coordinated containment tools including discriminatory tariff proliferation, punitive duties on transshipped goods, stricter origin rules and supply chain security clauses, pressuring third economies to reduce cooperation with China. The WTO now operates as a “WTO-minus-one” system amid long-term conflicts between the US unilateralism and multilateralism. This article argues that the Turnberry System cannot replace the multilateral trade rules, and all economies should jointly reform the WTO to advance inclusive globalization.

Keywords: Turnberry System, US Unilateral Tariffs, Multilateral Trading System, WTO Reform